OPINION | Iran's $200 oil threat isn't that far-fetched

China’s Sinopec, the world’s largest refiner by capacity, plans to slash production throughput this month by more than 10 per cent from its original plan due to a crude supply shortfall, Reuters reported. At the same time, China and Thailand have banned exports of refined fuels, a defensive move that risks tightening global markets further.

As crude scarcity deepens, refined fuel prices are soaring. Asian jet fuel prices are approaching $200 a barrel, close to a record of about $220 reached earlier this month.

And this crisis is not confined to Asia. Europe accounted for roughly three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped via Hormuz last year - about 379,000 bpd, according to data analytics firm Kpler - yet no cargo has transited the strait since the war began.

Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barges in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub have surged to a record $190 a barrel, surpassing the previous peak hit in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.